“. . . AND GULLIVER RETURNS”
In Search of Utopia
In Search of Utopia--
Book 2
WE ARE DIGGING OUR ECOLOGICAL CRYPT?
“. . . AND GULLIVER RETURNS”
In Search of Utopia
BOOK 2—SMASHWORDS EDITION
WE ARE DIGGING OUR ECOLOGICAL CRYPT?
By
Lemuel Gulliver XVI as told to Jacqueline Slow
© 2008 ISBN978-0-9823076-0-1
Dear friends—Obviously I wrote this series to be read from Book 1 to the end, but silly me! Readers often begin with what sounds interesting to them. This may leave them unaware of the characters, my friends and I. So let me introduce them. We were boyhood friends, as wild and as close as geese heading south for the winter. But our university educations split us philosophically like a drop of quicksilver hitting the floor. But like those balls of mercury, when brought together, they again become one. As have we.
Ray
became a Catholic priest and moved far to the right of where our
teenage liberalism had bound us. Ray calls himself a
neo-conservative. We think he is a reactionary.
Lee slid to the left of our adolescent leanings, and
somewhere along the line became an atheist. Lee is a lawyer.
Concannon, Con for short, retired from his very
successful business. I guess his business experience moved him a bit
to the right, to conservatism—a conservative just to the right of
the middle.
Then
there’s me. I think I’m pretty much a middle of the roader—except
for my passion to save our planet by reducing our population before
global warming, massive poverty and far-reaching famines decimate our
humanity. Hope this introduction makes our discussions make a bit
more sense.
By the way, as most of you know, we have put our photos before every bit of dialogue. This should make you more familiar with us. So the books read more like plays. Since most of you read the books in PDF or EPUB format it is no problem. But if you read them in RTF or TXT you will probably lose the photos. This will make the transitions of the conversations more difficult to follow. LG
TIME FOR LUNCH
--
“Well guys, it’s been an entertaining morning. How about letting
me buy you lunch. My all time favorite restaurant has been
tantalizing my taste buds during all my years in space. You wanna
take a drive to Hollywood for lunch at Micelli’s?”
–“Don’t think I know the place.”
–
“My dad introduced me. He said that their first place
in Hollywood was a pizza parlor where he had his first pizza when he
was in high school. They then opened a place on Highland where the
décor is an old Italian street. One room has a huge painting of the
Grand Canal in Venice. But the best thing is the singing waiters and
waitresses. Hollywood is full of talented people waiting to be
discovered. Many wait tables, so what is more logical than to let
them sing while they work. You get everything from opera to pop.
Really fun. How about it?”
—“I’ve
been there. Let’s go. But let’s keep talking about the issues.”
Forty minutes down the Ventura Freeway, right on the Hollywood Freeway, a quick right and there we are.
–There’s
Universal City just across Highland. Wonder what new attractions
they’ve got since I was last there? Just park there next to the
restaurant.
“Hey Hector, still working here? Guys, Hector was my running back when I coached football at Hollywood High. They were called the Sheiks. The nickname came from Rudolph Valentino’s film ‘The Sheik.’ You remember James Garner from the movies? He played end for Hollywood. He played against my dad at LA High. He was then Jim Baumgardner. Carol Burnett went there too. You remember the late John Ritter. He was student body president there. His father was the most popular country western singer of his day, Tex Ritter. But few at the school knew it. John wanted to go it alone. Then there were Lana Turner and Jane Powell, and lots more. They still have a Theater Arts Magnet School within the regular high school. So they’re still turning out talent.
“Hector, can we have the table up there next to the Grand Canal?”
–“I
feel like I’m sitting at the Doge’s Palace. Can almost hear a
gondolier singing Santa Lucia. The only thing missing is the stench
of the Venetian garbage!”
–“You
old romantic, Lee. You’d probably complain about a Papal audience
in St. Peter’s because it was too dark in the cathedral. One time I
was sitting behind the Harlem Globetrotters at a Papal audience.
Would you have complained about that?”
—“Not
if Goose Tatum showed me his bounce swisher off the marble floor.”
–“You
blasphemous old rebel. Hope you can play hoops for the Red Devils
after you die. Don’t think St. Peter will let you into our place.
But maybe we can get a home and home between your devils and my
angels.”
“Great, as long as we don’t play in St. Petersburg
or Los Angeles, our city of the angels.”
–“You
probably would want the game in Hell, Michigan or in Hell’s Kitchen
in New York.”
–“You
guys never change. You’ve been cutting each other since junior high
school! Want to continue our discussion about the problems of the
world? Or do you just want to keep playing one-upmanship? If you do
Lee, remember that God’s on Ray’s side now. If you try your left
hook on him now, God will probably smite you. I wouldn’t test it!
“Anyway, the major question of the day is how can we get the people of the world, and especially their political, business and religious leaders to overcome their apathy about the problems that overpopulation and technology have saddled us with?”
–“I
think we have to look at what Toynbee said, based on his analysis of
history ‘Apathy can be overcome by enthusiasm,
and enthusiasm can only be aroused by two things: first, an ideal,
which takes the imagination by storm, and second, by a definite
intelligible plan for carrying that ideal into practice.’”
–I’ve
talked a bit about a plan for reducing the population, but maybe we
have to look first at developing that imperative ideal that takes the
people’s imaginations by storm. I think we have to make the people
internalize the realities of the threats to our ecology through both
our ecological excesses and our ecological scarcities. How do we make
them realize that more people means more
land cleared of trees for homes and agriculture, more garbage, so
more methane and CO2,
more power plants for energy production, more cement plants, more
natural gas burning and more gasoline burning in trucks, cars and
planes—and less water, minerals and food.”
EXCESSES AND SCARCITIES—RECOGNIZING THE PROBLEMS
–“I
assume you mean the human caused excesses like air and water
pollution, increased warming due to CO2
and other greenhouse gases, and the increase of garbage and other
wastes.”
–“Right!
And scarcities like oil, ocean fish, arable land, potable water and
such. Did you know that the federal government has had to cut off
water supplies for farming in California—million of acres without
water.”
–“Don’t
you think everybody knows about those? My gosh, people have been
preaching about raping the planet for at least fifty years.”
–“That’s
true, but most people haven’t internalized it. When gasoline prices
went over $2 a gallon in the U.S. in 2005, people became upset. But
in Europe gasoline prices had been two or three times that level for
years and people didn’t think anything about it. Then as American
gasoline prices advanced, the European prices stayed two to three
times higher.
“With more people we will need more homes, so we can use mountains, deserts or farmland. We may build high rises to reduce the amount of land used so we will need more cement, sand and steel. Producing the cement and steel increases the carbon dioxide release and transporting them to the building sites will use energy, probably oil. The sand is becoming more of a problem. Resorts don’t want you taking their beaches. As we build on the deserts it is harder to find cheap sand. So building around North Africa isn’t so much of a problem since the Sahara is right next door. But it’s already hot there and with global warming the air conditioning bills will be astronomical. Los Angeles is really pretty much of a desert. There’s still a lot of sand around Palm Springs, but much of it has been covered by rambling ranch houses, resorts and golf courses.
“Then there is the cost of food. With more gullets on the globe, and more gourmets in the kitchen, the people with the ‘bread’ want more than bread. Rice and wheat are now mere accompaniments to the surf and turf delicacies of fish and steak. Caloric necessities are exceeded with every second helping. From Hong Kong to Paris gourmets’ garbage clogs the sewers and landfills. With farmland producing biofuels and supporting housing, agriculture cannot keep up with global glut of empty bellies. So more Third World children starve to death. More middle class Westerners cut back on the necessities which are less important than food. Globalization scatters its rewards and extracts its penalties. And all but the rich must tighten their belts.
–“People
have to see the problems now, not tomorrow or in the near future.
When sport fishermen can’t catch their limits in the ocean they may
realize that the oceans have been overfished. When people who love
swordfish are warned about eating it because of mercury poisoning,
they may be concerned. When their vacations cost more because of fuel
cost increases and food prices; when the ozone layer offers less
protection against skin cancer so beach vacations are less desirable;
when ski areas get less snow because of global warming—vacations
will be affected. When taxes are increased to finance cleaning up the
environment or to reduce the use of natural resources—it will start
to make an effect. Hitting people in the pocketbook tends to get
their attention. When energy costs much more, the poorer people won’t
be able to afford it. The fog of poverty will enshroud a greater
number of people. Gasoline and electricity costs will reduce the use
of automobiles, air conditioning, heating, dishwashing, clothes
washing and drying and many other things both personal and
commercial. For all but the richest people, energy will change our
lives.”
--
“Natural resources are being reduced daily. Just look at corn. With
the increased use of corn for biofuels, corn prices go up. So it
costs more to feed the livestock, so beef prices rise. What shall we
use the corn for? To feed people, to feed cows, to feed cars and
trucks? Wheat, rice and other cereal prices have jumped double digits
in a day. Increased population increases the need for food. Increased
industrialization increases the need for petroleum and other oils.
Financial ability controls the destiny of food and oils. And the poorest are left to starve.
“In looking at biofuels the picture is somewhat confusing. While they will reduce the dependence on foreign oil, corn based fuel only reduces the carbon dioxide emissions by 20% while switchgrass generated fuels reduce them by 70%. But methane generated from sewage, manure and organic garbage would kill two birds with one stone, or should we say ‘two turds with one groan’-- of your engine.”
—“Bad
metaphor, or is it a simile? I always get them mixed up! But you have
probably heard that the there may be a net ecological negative from
increasing farm land at the expense of forests and grassland. And if
we are trying to feed the poor people in undeveloped lands, using
grains for gasoline will reduce their food supply, because hungry
mouths are increasing faster than food grains are raised.
“The United Nations relies on its members for contributions to its World Food Program. But with nearly every country’s budget in the red, the budget allotment for food for the poor is reduced, and what that money can buy is significantly reduced every year. Will the rich reduce their appetites for food or travel? Never! So the poorest of the poor will starve to death more often. Over ten years ago, in 2008, the United States had to reduce its contribution of food and money. A 40% rise in grain costs minimized what the dollar could buy. And of course, under President Bush, the dollar had lost half of its value. So you had fewer dollars, which were worth less, buying food that cost more. So the poor in Africa, Latin America, and Asia suffered the consequences.
“And look at China. Its industrialization has been responsible for more than two-thirds of the increased demand for aluminum, zinc and copper. Every year its needs for oil increase by a million gallons of oil per day over what it used the previous year. And India isn’t far behind.”
—“Certainly
some will be concerned about their progeny. But the ‘now’ is
nearly always all-important when compared with concerns about the
future. I am proud of the Catholic Church.
Pope Benedict, years ago, told Catholic youth to be eco-friendly and
to help save the planet. He said we have to safeguard creation. He
told the half million youths at Loretto that ‘Courageous choices
that can re-create a strong alliance between man and earth must be
made before it is too late.”
—“I’ll
bet he didn’t say anything about controlling the population that is
trashing God’s planet! I wonder if the pope knows about Father
Morris up in Wyandotte, Michigan. I was up in Michigan with my cousin
a few years ago. Father Morris put up an electricity generating
windmill on his house. Then he had solar panels on the roof and a
solar water heating system. His
efforts reduced his churches demand for energy by 60% and saved his
parish $20,000 a year. He told me that this world is God’s
creation, ‘If someone like me doesn’t speak about its care, who
will? The changes we’ve made here are a form of preaching.’ But
it doesn’t stop at his church, he has spread the word to many other
churches, and of course, to his parishioners. He said he is just
doing as God commanded in Genesis 2:15—we are required to take care
of our, our earth.”
—“You
would think that the knowledge of science would be enough to change
people’s attitudes and that a real attitude change would result in
changed behavior.
”People always fear change. People feared electricity when it was invented, didn't they? People feared coal. They feared gas-powered engines and horseless carriages. There will always be ignorance, and ignorance leads to unwarranted fears. Look at the resistance to computers, to e-mail, to the internet, to mobile phones. Often people resist change because God is against it. Like stem cell research or cloning. Then once people accept it, God seems to accept it too.”
—“Is
that what is meant in Matthew 16:19 that whatever you shall bind on
earth shall be bound in heaven? It makes me wonder why God didn’t
get it right to start with!Why does He let people tell him what truth
will be?”
—“How
much more knowledge do we need. It is clear that the human race is
living beyond its means. We have created huge problems by depleting
our natural resources while increasing excesses that may never be
effectively dealt with. We have depleted nature’s bounty in many
areas. There are far fewer fish in the sea. There is less water in
the ground. There is less breathable air. There are fewer natural
resources. We are also complicating our lives, and leaving our
children with perhaps insurmountable problems relative to global
warming because of our man-made greenhouse gasses. The developed
nations multiply annually the garbage they must burn or hide in
canyons. Their electrical needs often are satisfied with energy
produced by fossil fuel burning, with its severe ecological
consequences, or by nuclear power generation with its attendant toxic
waste that must be hidden. We have polluted our water and our air.
Scarcely a human need has not been affected negatively by our selfish
need for the good life today. The problem is here and now, forget
tomorrow!”
GOVERNMENT ACTIONS AND INACTIONS
—“As
a Republican neo-conservative, I have had to find fault with some of
our national leaders. The needs of American business were found to
take precedence over the needs of the world in the near and distant
future. I was appalled when the Bush administration had proposed laws
that would have let many power plants, refineries and factories avoid
installing costly new pollution controls to help offset any increased
emissions caused by repairs and replacements of their equipment.
Energy companies said the two rules the administration proposed in
2002 and 2003 would help them expand energy supplies at lower costs
to consumers. But I sided with the environmentalists who said the
change would result in just the kind of increased pollution that the
law was intended to control. When several states sued the federal
government, the court sided with the states.”
—“Well
Ray you’re one of the good reactionaries. I guess God showed you
the way that time! But seriously, there were laws passed that called
for companies to build plants with modern control technologies,
because pollution controls must be modernized along with the plants
themselves.”
---“You
don’t get something for nothing. Lower energy costs are the result
of simpler more pollution-producing methods. Do you want lower
electrical bills and more hurricanes, and flooding and higher food
costs because of the higher cost of water and the increased value of
farm land due to urbanization, or do you want a cleaner more human
friendly atmosphere?”
—“I
think all of us here want a cleaner world. Most of the leaders in my
party back environmental intelligence. Just look at Arnold
Schwarzenegger when he was governor of California, he believed that
things needed to happen immediately. I guess that’s the difference
between a politician who is controlled by business interests and a
real leader.”
–“But
look at the trouble poor Arnold got himself into when he tried to do
what was best for the state rather than succumb to the interests of
the state employees’ unions. That’s one of the troubles with
modern democracy, the elites are still in control. Business, labor,
the military, along with the ensconced political leaders, run the
show. They just give the voters enough jellybeans to keep their minds
off the pork barrels. It’s so rare to have a real leader today in a
democracy.”
–“Maybe
Arnold was just concerned that the melting Arctic and Antarctic ice
caps would flood his state. Just think of what a few meters of rising
oceans would do to San Diego, Balboa Bay, Los Angeles and San
Francisco. Heck the global warming may submerge California before the
big quake topples it into the ocean!”
—“It’s
no joke, the studies show that by the end of this century the average
world temperature can be four degrees higher than today. It’s been
130,000 years since that’s happened. Oceans can rise 12 to 20 feet
higher.”
—“No
problem. Just wait for the next ice age. During the last one the sea
level may have dropped 20 feet. There may actually have been ice ages
that dropped the ocean level over 300 feet. Maybe we should buy ocean
floor real estate for our descendants! We should be able to drive to
Catalina Island. It won’t be an island in 10,000 years. Heck maybe
we will be able to ski in the Hollywood hills!
“Ray, what did Schwarzenegger plan to do?”
–“He
called for reducing the state’s greenhouse gas emissions to the
2000 levels by 2010, to the 1990 levels by 2020, and 80 percent below
the 1990 levels by 2050.He has also called for hydrogen fueling
stations for the eventual hydrogen powered car and for a state
subsidy for a million solar roof houses to convert solar power to
electricity.”
—“All
that while he was driving his gas guzzling Humvee?”
—“Didn’t
you hear? He sold his Humvee and started riding his motorcycle, then
he bought an electric car. But back to the issue. I understand that
in the past we have had higher temperatures. They certainly weren’t
caused by industry and cars. And scientists aren’t sure why these
temperature changes occur.”
PLANETARY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS--ICEAGES AND WARMING
—“That’s
true. We’ve had ice ages and we’ve had global warming. And only a
few degrees up or down from the average temperature can give us an
ice age or a period of global warming. The last great ice age ended
about 18,000 years ago so we’re getting kind of close to the next
one.”
—“What
caused the ice ages?”
—“An
ice age requires only a drop of one to 5 degrees Celsius from the
Earth’s normal temperature of about 15 degrees Celsius. The last
major ice age may have been only 3 to 5 degrees Celsius cooler than
today, although some estimate it as low as 12 degrees colder
“No one knows why the temperature dropped. Possibly several different actions worked together. Among the theories are the astronomical actions that occur. Here we are talking about the changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit, the variations in the wobble of our planet’s axis, and the amount of sunspot activity. Our orbit is not always the same, it changes from a somewhat round orbit to a more elliptical orbit. When it is more elliptical we swing farther from the sun. This change takes about 100,000 years to complete. The wobble in the tilt of the Earth’s axis, which may vary almost 2 degrees from its normal 23 degree tilt, allows more sunlight to a different part of the planet. This shift takes about 41,000 years to complete. Then there are the solar eruptions like sun spots. They put out some extra heat but their major effects are magnetic. This strongly affects ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that do affect the upper regions of our atmosphere. The solar activity occurs in two cycles, an 11 year and a 206 year series of cycles.
“Then there are the so-called tectonic causes. By this we mean the shifting of the plates on the outer surface of our planet. Sometimes it is called ‘continental drift’. For example what now is Antarctica was once at the equator a half a billion years ago.”
–
“Does that mean that penguins evolved from parrots?”
–“Maybe.
It’s just like the movies, we went from black and white to color,
and from silent films to the ‘talkies!’ So it was from parrots to
penguins!”
—“You
wanna hear more about ice ages or do you want to play Bob Hope and
Jerry Seinfeld?”
—“Lets
get back to tectonics.”
—“Well
the shifting of continents can cause changes in the ocean currents
which can warm or cool different parts of the world. Ice ages seem to
be particularly likely when there is land over the poles.
“There are the oceanic factors, like the Pacific’s el Nino and la Nina, that warm or cool the ocean every few years. They also affect rainfall and draughts along with their temperature changes.
“Then there are the atmospheric causes like the accumulation or reduction of greenhouse gases and microscopic particles in the air. So volcanic smoke or smoke from autos or industry can play a part. And water vapor or carbon dioxide and other gases can play a part. That’s what the present concern about global warming is about—humans putting more CO2 into the air from burning fossil fuels, more methane from the decomposition of garbage and more other compounds from the products of our technology, such as air conditioning refrigerants and spray cans. The CO2 and methane have always been with us—at least since plants and animals have been a part of our world. We have just increased them excessively. Other gases, like the fluorocarbons, are new to our atmosphere because of our technology. Then there is the possibility that heat from the core of the Earth could come to the surface at various times and create a warming cycle.
“The combination of these can increase the amount of infrared and ultraviolet rays
emitted from the sun or absorbed by the land and seas. They can also affect the amount of heat reflected back into space by ice and snow. They reflect about 90% of the light they receive back toward space. If we have less ice we’ll have less heat reflected back. On the other hand, the ocean absorbs 90% of the heat that hits it.
“While ice ages are actually the more normal pattern of climate, periods of warming and cooling occur in cycles. This is well understood, as is the fact that small-scale cycles of about 40 years exist within larger-scale cycles of 400 years. These in turn exist inside still larger cycles of 20,000 years, and so on. And for some reason CO2 seems to always be present during warming. The problem today, of course, is the increase in greenhouse gases. Air bubbles from ice cores in Antarctica show that when temperatures rise there is more carbon dioxide in the air. We don’t know why. Does the CO2 cause the warming or is it caused by it? Of course in the past it was always from natural causes. But now it is largely from man-made sources.
“About 75 years ago some scientists believed that humans were speeding us towards another ice age because pollutants were blocking out the sunlight. And the world did seem to be cooling then. But in the 1970s temperatures started rising dramatically. For the first time in planetary history humans were changing the climate. With all the factors moving temperatures up and down, there is no question that the trend is upward.”
—“Well
hasn’t the human induced warming today been positive? It helped us
out of a mini-ice age. If so maybe it was one of the greatest of
human achievements—even though it was not planned. Maybe we should
promote the warming to prevent the next ice age?
“After all, ice ages are not all bad. The last ice age gave us the land bridge across the Bering Sea that allowed the Asian migration to populate the Western Hemisphere. Then as the world warmed the land bridge was submerged, cutting migration. As it warmed more, about 8,000 years ago it allowed for agriculture in the world, and as crops became easier to raise we developed crafts, then, trade, then civilization.”
—“And
don’t forget wars, civilization brought disagreements,
acquisitiveness, certainty of beliefs, religions—and wars.”
—“The
last small temperature dip of only about a half of one degree in the
mid-1800s is thought to be responsible for such things as the Irish
Potato famine. Without that famine we wouldn’t have had so many of
you dumb Irishmen populating our beautiful country.”
—“But
without us you wouldn’t have had John Kennedy, James Cagney, Ronald
Reagan or Wreck and me!”
GLOBAL WARMING
—“I’ve
heard that the current global warming actually started during the
Industrial Revolution.”
—“Right.
We can see that from the sediment patterns in Arctic lakes. Warming
patterns started in the 1850s. They have just been hugely accelerated
during the last few years. And it’s going to get worse, much worse.
Since the Industrial Revolution it is estimated that between 165 and
290 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide have been added to the
atmosphere by industrial nations through the burning of coal, oil,
and gas. When I started my voyage the yearly CO2
emissions were almost 25 billion tons a year. That’s billion
tons, so we’re talking about trillions of
pounds. And that has increased annually by over a billion tons every
year.
“Since the Industrial Revolution the Earth has warmed about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit. If we don’t reduce carbon dioxide emissions to about zero immediately the Earth could warm by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. If we don’t get emissions to 0 by 2300 the Earth’s temperature will rise 15 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s 8 degrees Celsius. (1) And just a 2 degree Celsius rise will cause huge problems for all of us.
“The U.S. and China are the biggest polluters, but on a per capita basis the U.S. is number one while China is 6th in the world.”
—“Who
else are the leading polluters per person?”
—“Australia
is second and Saudi Arabia third. Then Canada is fourth and
surprisingly, North Korea is fifth.
“The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report of 2007 said that cleaning it up will cost less than continuing to pollute. The estimated cost of stabilizing the greenhouse gasses is only about 0.12% of a nation’s yearly economy. That is cheap when compared with the cost of rising oceans wiping out huge cities and displacing their populations, fighting the increasing number of forest fires and hurricanes, and the developing shortage of fresh water. Among the benefits would be less sickness due to less air pollution and a stabilization of the rising air temperatures. It will take a long time to reverse what we have done. Nothing but a sharp drop in population will make a relatively quick change.
“From our measurements we know that the level of CO2 during the ice age was 180 parts per million, with the Industrial Revolution it went to about 280 parts per million, but in the last 50 years it has gone over 400 parts per million. Half of these emissions have occurred since the mid-1970s. Methane, another greenhouse gas, increased from 700 parts per million before the Industrial Revolution to 1900 parts per million today. There are also a number of atmospheric gases that were not around a couple of hundred years ago, but modern technology has developed them and released them into the atmosphere at an alarming rate.
“In recent years we’ve had the Kyoto Accords of the late 1990s and Al Gore’s 2006 Academy Award winning documentary that inflamed the concern of many, except for the U.S. president at the time. But climate concerns go back many years earlier. While scientists saw the problems many years earlier, popular magazines were warming up to the subject in the 1960s. (2) As early as 1863 John Tyndall was writing about greenhouse gases and before 1900 the Swedish scientist Svante Arrehenius made the first known attempt to calculate the impact of increased carbon dioxide on the Earth's atmosphere.
“Of the hottest recorded years, 19 of the 20 occurred during the twenty years prior to my trip. There has been a 0.6 degree Celsius increase in temperature in the last century. It seems to be primarily of our own making. The greenhouse effect may also cause extremes of high and low temperatures while the highs will be primary.
“Greenland icecaps have melted more than twice as fast each decade since 1995, the increase was enough to supply about a billion urban city dwellers water for a year—if it could have been captured. If all of Greenland’s ice melted it would raise the ocean levels about 23 feet and if the ice in Antarctica melted it would raise the oceans about 200 feet. “Ice at the poles is categorized as perennial ice and seasonal ice. The perennial ice should remain, but the seasonal ice melts in summer and freezes in winter. The perennial ice contains more air bubbles that scatter the solar light, so less heat is absorbed. But the seasonal ice is more solid and so absorbs more solar energy. It therefore melts faster and warms the ocean more. From 1980 to 2000 the Arctic perennial ice was shrinking at a little less than 1% per year. In 2004 it shrunk 14%.So we lost an amount of ice about equal to the size of Texas.
—“I’ve heard lower rates of melting, like 6% a
year.”
—“It
depends on how you measure, by coring, taking satellite photos or
other means For example, the study you are citing was a NASA
satellite study. It showed a 1 ½% loss of ice per decade but a 6%
loss in a year in this century. That’s a huge increase
“While the scientists are now nearly universally agreed on the reality and the problems of global warming, the politicians may not. While Prince Charles of England said that “if you look at the latest figures on climate change and global warming ... they’re terrifying, terrifying,” President Bush in the U.S.A. didn’t see it as much of a problem. The success of American business and getting more and cheaper oil were far more important.
“But the non-business backed IPCC saw it quite differently. The Nobel Peace Prize winning IPCC, formed by the United Nations in 1988 to determine the state of the climate change, has issued four main sets of reports. The first and second reports, in 1990 and 1995, laid the groundwork for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The third report, in 2001, and the fourth report released in 2007, were increasingly alarming in warning that we are causing a dramatic alteration of our environment by heating up the atmosphere.”
–
“I guess as a species we may be lucky if we survive
another century or two. Lots of scientists aren’t sure we’ll
survive that long. But there is always hope. We can be like the boxer
who is knocked down and is almost out but staggers to his feet
because there is a chance that he can win. But as a society we’ve
got to get up now—and fight.”
—“OK Rocky, I’m with you. We’re down, but not
out, yet. So how do we attack the problem? It scares me half to
death!”
—“Look
out Con, you’ve been scared half to death, if it happens again you
might be all the way dead! But seriously, maybe I haven’t been
paying enough attention to the causes of the problem and the possible
solutions. Can you fill me in quickly, Wreck?”
—“In
a nutshell, there is a great deal of carbon in the world. There is
also a great deal of oxygen. In the early years of the planet, and
until about 150 years ago there was generally enough of a greenhouse
effect of the carbon dioxide to allow life to grow and flourish.”
—“I
thought the ‘greenhouse effect’ was bad.”
—“It
is a matter of degree. Keeping out harmful rays of the sun and
letting out excess heat is good. But we need more forests to deplete
the excess of CO2.The
reduction of forests along with the increase of CO2parallel
each other . We need trees and other plants to convert the CO2
back to O2.
But too much CO2
along with other so-called greenhouse gases, like methane, create an
excessive greenhouse effect—reflecting too much of the Earth’s
heat back to the planet’s surface rather than letting it go back
into space.. That’s where we are now. Too much heat is being
trapped. At the same time some of these greenhouse aerosols have
depleted the ozone layer which lets in more harmful rays and
increases cancers of the skin.”
—“So
it’s not only increasing our air conditioning bills but it’s
changing our ecology significantly. So the hotter it gets the more
air conditioning we use so the more fossil fuels we burn to produce
the electricity for them. So more CO2,
so more heat, so more air conditioning needed. What a
self-perpetuating cycle!”
—“It’s
more than just increasing your air conditioning bills! Glaciers are
melting faster. The warmth in the northern hemisphere makes the
flowers bloom earlier and is increasing the tree growth somewhat. But
trees in the temperate zones of California, Europe and Australia are
dying more often from parasitic diseases. Warm water parasites are
moving northward poisoning the shellfish and ocean fish. These are
then killing seals and sea lions.”
---“How
are they being killed?”
---The
red tide, or the phytoplankton, clog the gills of fish so they
suffocate. They get into the bodies of shellfish as they feed and
poison them. And some algae produce domoic acid, which in low doses
can cause miscarriages and brain tissue decay and in high doses is
fatal. Fish and shellfish concentrate these toxins then humans and
other mammals eat them. Hundreds of California sea lions have died
from these poisons. It is affecting fish up the West Coast even north
into Canadian waters. Anchovies, salmon, mussels and squid are some
of the sea creatures affected. While they are killing sea mammals
now, we humans may be next.
“You guys remember how, when the red tide was in, we’d go down to Playa del Rey at night and watch the waves break in a bright florescent blue. Then we’d run along the sand near the water and our feet would kick up that phosphor and it looked like blue flames coming from our feet.”
—“I
remember. The ocean was beautiful at night but ugly brown in the
daylight. And it smelled terrible!”
—“Oh
the good old days! But now more on the bad days ahead. Our global
warming of the water can also increase the risk of cholera outbreaks
thousands of miles away.
—“Then
there’s the garbage in the oceans. I’ve heard that sea birds are
dying from eating plastic things that have found their way to the
seas. As a diver, I’ve been concerned about the huge increase of
diseases in coral due to pollution. It seems to be from the sugars
from sewage dumping and agricultural run-off. The increased algae
seems to be the problem here too. Fish used to help us by eating
algae, but the overfishing has reduced that protection.
“I used to dive in the Caribbean but the dumping of live sewage into the water made it less appealing and the reefs were disappearing because of the sewage. Too many people and not enough sewage treatment plants. I gave up surfing in California because of the danger of hepatitis. It’s hard to believe that just driving my car and heating my house has such wide ranging effects for my quality of life.”
--“Insufficient
oxygen, or hyperoxia, in the oceans is causing three times more males
to
be born in some species of fish and shrimp—and the females born have twice the amount
of testosterone as normal. Then there are 100,000 square miles of oxygen-dead zones in the ocean as farm run off, such as fertilizer kill the sea life. (2a)So our problems are not only caused by carbon dioxide.”
–“:It’s
strange to understand that the carbon and oxygen from things living
millions of years ago is causing our problems today? When dinosaurs
died they took their carbon with them to the grave. When trees,
mosses, grasses and marine life died, their carbon was buried with
them. Then ‘abra cadabra’ we have oil and coal.”
—“Seriously,
carbon is one of the most prevalent elements in the world. Scientists
know of about ten million carbon compounds, from the super tough
diamond and our necessary vitamins to gases like carbon monoxide and
carbon dioxide. What we are doing is taking carbon based fuel, that
took a million years of life to produce, then using it driving to the
market or in heating our houses for a day. So we are well past the
level of carbon dioxide that allowed life to develop and flourish. We
are now choking on a level of the gas that life cannot tolerate. It’s
like other things, there is a right amount and there is an excessive
amount.”
–“Like
vitamin A, you need some, but too much in a short period of time can
be lethal.”
—“Or
eating fats. You need some for normal body functioning, but too much
and you become obese or die from a cancer or a heart problem.”
–“So
while some of the excess carbon dioxide may be absorbed in the
oceans, they can’t absorb it all. So the world warms. This
increases draught and forest fires which release more CO2
into the air because of the carbon that was retained by the trees
when they took in the carbon dioxide from the air and gave off oxygen
for animals to breathe. The process of photosynthesis, which we all
know about, requires that the trees and plants retain the carbon they
took from the air. Also, as the world warms, plant life which was
frozen in the northern hemisphere’s tundra in Russia and North
America thaws and CO2
is released. So while it was the human activities of heating, driving
and manufacturing that started the warming ball rolling, that spark
has ignited additional carbon releasing processes. It’s like
starting to drive down a steep hill. You provide the gas to get your
car rolling down, but even if you shut off the engine you will be
going faster and faster. It’s that snowball effect. We’ve started
it, but we can’t stop it.”
—“Where
will this extra carbon come from?”
—“Some
of the computer models show it coming primarily from the oceans,
others show it coming from the land. I think it is more likely to
come from the land. Studies from England show that the land is giving
up 14 million tons of carbon a year. Then as warming increases more
carbon is released. Then we add in the reduced carbon dioxide uptake
from South American rainforests because of a lack of rain and we add
to the problem.”
—“Is
it really that dire, Wreck?”
–“It
is. But we can slow the process. But reversing it, so that the
greenhouse gasses are reduced enough to cool the planet, is highly
improbable right now, in spite of the attention that most scientists
and concerned citizens, like Al Gore, have brought to the problem.
The world’s citizens bury their heads in sands of hope, but as with
the proverbial ostrich, the problem still exists, whether they can
see it or not.
“None of the immediate solutions are palatable. A nuclear holocaust wiping out over five billion people would solve one problem, but the nuclear radiation and fallout would just substitute one problem for another. Germ warfare or poisons could have the same outcomes.
“A quick reduction of population would work, but population cannot be reduced quickly peacefully. Another solution could be to require immediate drops in fossil fuels for driving and manufacturing. We could reduce fossil fuel use ten percent per year, and allow only clean energy to make up the difference. This would force government, businesses and the populations to bear the brunt of the prevention of the genocide of the planet’s human population –a genocide not anticipated by the originators of the Industrial Revolution and the race to riches that they created.
“In spite of the dire warnings that should disturb us all and change our path toward self destruction, we continually increase our production of greenhouse gasses. At the present rate of continually increasing our CO2 production, the amount held in the atmosphere will double in this century. (3) At the same time, the Earth’s ability to absorb the CO2 is being reduced as forests disappear to make room for housing and to provide the lumber for that housing.
“An immediate and sharp reduction in population is necessary. We should be planting billions of trees. And of course we would need to use only non-polluting sources of energy, like: wind, geothermal, tidal, hydrogen and solar. We’d have to find ways of handling the garbage so that we don’t create more methane and CO2.”
–“Can’t
we use methane for cars?”
—“Of
course. And some people have done it for years. The problem would be
to trap the escaping gas from the garbage before it reached the
atmosphere. Utilizing it is already practical.”
—“I’ve
been concerned for years, but when I heard about the computer
projections done at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory a few years ago
I really got scared. Have you heard about it Commander, er, I mean,
Wreck?”
—“No
what did they predict?”
—“Using
the facts that you had just alluded to, they projected what will
happen in the next two centuries. They predict that the polar areas
will increase their temperatures about 68 degrees and the average
world temperature will go up almost 15 degrees. And they said that
their estimates were conservative, so it could be much worse.
“Every year the carbon dioxide gets a bit worse. From close to 400 parts per million now it should reach 1000 parts per million by early in the next century. Then by the beginning of the 24th century, if we survive that long, it should be nearly 1500 parts per million so we’re talking about a 400% increase over today’s levels and 800% over the pre-Industrial Revolution levels. Even at the 1000 parts per million level we will have real problems.
“As the frozen tundra thaws, trees should start to grow in those areas so they would capture some carbon. But the tropical areas might get too hot to support the forests, such as those in Brazil.”
--“But
plant growth is dependent on soil nutrients.”
–“That
shouldn’t be a problem in the thawed tundra because of all the
decayed vegetation in the land. The problem is more in the populated
areas where people plant trees, which is good, but they must
fertilize them, and they usually do it with petrochemicals.”
—“Is
carbon dioxide the only problem?”
—“No.
There are also methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor that allow the
sunlight in but stop the radiated heat from the Earth from escaping
back to space so they effectively warm the globe more than would be
ideal.”
—“Aren’t
these the same air pollutants we’ve been talking about since the
1970s?”
—“Some
are and some aren’t. Since the 70s we have talked about pollutants
near the Earth’s surface and their effects on our breathing and
blood. Now we are more concerned with pollutants miles up in the
atmosphere. Sulfur is a problem whether it is high or low. Carbon
monoxide is a problem when we breathe it, but when it becomes carbon
dioxide it is a problem high up. Ozone is a toxic compound for plants
and animals at ground level, but at high altitudes it is a positive
factor since it filters out some of the sun’s harmful ultraviolet
rays. Lead is a problem at low levels but isn’t a factor high in
the atmosphere. Some of the aerosols are inert at ground level but
may break down the ozone layer when they rise to the stratosphere.
Carbon dioxide isn’t much of a factor at ground level but is a
major negative factor in global warming when it rises several miles
above the earth. So you see there are huge differences in what
chemical compounds may do at the higher and lower altitudes.
GREENHOUSE GASES THE CAUSES OF INCREASED WARMING
“Let’s start with the ultimate cause of warming—the sun. Our energy comes from the sun where 700 million tons of hydrogen are converted to energy every second. Only a very small portion of that energy hits the Earth. That energy comes as visible light, which includes the light waves that make up the rainbow, but most of it comes in wavelengths longer than the visible red light, the infrared waves, and wavelengths shorter than the violet waves, the ultraviolet. When you sit in the sun you are warmed mainly by the infrared waves and tanned by the ultraviolet waves.
“About half of the solar energy actually penetrates the Earth’s surface of land and sea. The other half was either absorbed by some of the greenhouse gases or clouds or was reflected back to the atmosphere. Snow and ice are good reflectors of this energy, as are clouds, atmospheric aerosols, sand, rooftops, and even the white foam of ocean surf. This is primarily infrared radiation. If there were no greenhouse gases this reflected infrared energy would all go back into space. Some of this is solar energy and heat which was reflected from the Earth is then reflected back to the Earth by the greenhouse gases. This causes global warming. Some of this warming was essential to the development of life. Too much can destroy our ecology and our life.
THE CASE FOR TODAY’S GLOBAL WARMING REALITY
“We can get a picture of previous cooling and warming periods several ways. By coring through the ice in Antarctica going 2000 feet deep we have been able to sample air as far back as 160,000 years ago. Other drilling in the Atlantic takes us back about three million years. So we have a fair picture of the past temperatures of the Earth. As far as we can see from the air trapped in the ice we can see that CO2 seems to increase when the world is warmer. But we don’t know if is it is the cause or the effect?
“We can also see the effects of weather on fossils much older than the 3 million years and we can get a more recent picture by looking at tree rings. Of course now we have weather stations around the world and we get continual satellite readings.”
–“I’ve
heard that there is a variation between the satellite readings and
the surface temperature readings and that the satellites don’t show
the same warming patterns.”
–“That’s
true. Temperatures very high up are often lower and can change the
temperature readings that the satellite is picking up from the
ground. But we are concerned with surface temperature. It’s on the
surface of the globe that the ice caps are melting and trees in the
temperate latitudes are dying. And the warming changes are happening
a hundred times faster than anything we have seen in the last three
million years of periodic natural warming cycles.
“Today’s problems we attribute to the human caused increase in greenhouse gases. I have to mention that without greenhouse gasses we would not be here. Our average earthly temperatures would be much colder—about 34 degrees Celsius colder. You may not know that water vapor is the major greenhouse gas. It causes about 35 to 70% of the greenhouse effect.”
—“36
to 70%, that’s a pretty big range. Can’t they bring it down to
one number or a smaller range?”
—“Well
the amount of a greenhouse gas varies somewhat in different parts of
the Earth’s atmospheric layers. When I give you ranges, like 36 to
70% the higher number is more appropriate for the gas alone, but
since none are found alone and the percentages of the various gases
vary with altitude and with its location over the land and sea masses
the effects of a particular gas can be lower than its maximal heat
reflecting level. .
“A major factor in the amount of water vapor in the air is the air temperature.At 40 degrees Celsius the warm air can hold 5 grams of water per 100 grams of dry air. At 30 degrees 100 grams of dry air can hold about 3 grams of water, at 20 degrees 1.5 grams of water vapor, at 10 degrees—about a half a gram and at freezing—about 4/10s of a gram. The higher the altitude or the closer to the poles, the colder it gets.
“Since the area near the equator is warmer we find more water vapor in the air. This creates the major storms like we’ve seen in Bangladesh and the Caribbean. Because the warm air can evaporate surface water it contributes to the drying of lakes and seas like Lake Chad in Africa, the Aral Sea in Asia and the Sea of Galilee in the Middle East.
“We live in the troposphere, the lowest level of our atmosphere. It is about 4 miles high at the poles and 12 miles at the equator. Above that is the stratosphere. Most water vapor and about 80% of the other greenhouse gases are in the troposphere. The ozone layer is in the stratosphere, up to about 10 to 20 miles.”
—“I’ve
heard that CO2
is only about 3% or less of the greenhouse gases.”
—“That’s
true. Water vapor accounts for about 95% of greenhouse gases and
causes about 50% of the global warming. As I said, the estimates vary
from 35 to 70% of the warming. Of the rest, CO2
is by far the major one. The 3% content in the atmosphere is
responsible for about 15% of the warming. The estimates run from 10
to 25%. And it is the one that seems to be linked to the previous
warming and cooling periods in our world.
“Water vapor is not increased by humans except where high levels of evaporation might take place, such as over irrigated fields. However, as the human generated CO2 increases the air temperature, more water vapor can be held by the warmer air, thus increasing the greenhouse effect. This higher humidity is a factor in the increasing strength of tropical storms.”
CARBON DIOXIDE
—“If
it weren’t for CO2
we wouldn’t be around. But where did it come from originally?”
—“It
first came out of the Earth’s crust and made the atmosphere
hospitable to early life. Then it continued spewing and plant life
captured it then released it when it decomposed. It helped to
stabilize the world’s temperature somewhat so animals could develop
and evolve. A lot of carbon has been deposited over the last few
billion years. Much of it has accumulated as oil and coal were made
from life that had died and settled into the bowels of the Earth
billions or millions of years ago. Now as we burn the coal and oil we
are putting the carbon accumulation of millions of years back into
the atmosphere in just a few years.
“Eight hundred billion tons of carbon are dissolved in the world's oceans and in marine plants and animals. Sea shells and coral have been good storage sites for carbon. But as the oceans warm the water can’t hold as much carbon dioxide. When the oceans and vegetation can’t store it, it accumulates in the atmosphere. The atmosphere holds about 750 billion tons of carbon. We are now putting about 7 billion tons of CO2 into the air every year. As I mentioned, the CO2 accounts for 10 to 25% of the greenhouse effect.”
—“Does
it all come from oil and coal?”
—“Globally,
liquid and solid fuels accounted for over 75% of the emissions from
fossil-fuel burning. Combustion of gas fuels, such as natural gas,
contributes almost 20% of the CO2.Cement
production adds another 3 ½%”
—“Is
it primarily our cars and trucks that are doing the damage?”
—“No,
CO2
released when we use fossil fuels to power our electricity generating
plants cause nearly 40% of the U.S. emissions. Coal accounts for 80
to 90% of that. A problem with coal is that it releases about 80%
more carbon than natural gas does per kilowatt produced. Oil ranks
about halfway between coal and gas as a pollutant.
“You mentioned cars. Around 20% of CO2 comes from cars and small trucks. For every gallon of gas you use your car engine produces almost 20 pounds of carbon monoxide, about a pound for every mile driven. Since the U.S. uses over 20 million barrels of oil per day, just increasing the average car’s gas mileage by 3 miles per gallon would save a million barrels a day. This would save U.S. drivers 25 billion dollars a year. On the other hand, sitting in traffic costs both money and pollutants. One year of gridlock costs about $63 billion for the 2.3 billion gallons of gasoline wasted and it uses millions of hours of drivers’ time.
“Another way to look at it is to compare the average American driving the family car 10,000 miles. If it gets 25 miles per gallon the pollutants it produces would equal a year’s worth of heating the owner’s house by natural gas. If the house were heated with electricity produced by burning coal, driving the car a year would equal the pollutants produced in just four months of coal generated home heating.”
—“How
do various countries rank, per capita, in terms of CO2
output?”
—“The
U.S.A. and China produce more CO2
than any other country—about 6 billion tons a year each. but China
has more than three times as many people. Maybe we should look at it
from a per capita output. When we do that we find that Qatar heads
the list with 70 metric tons per person. The smaller Arab Mideast
states are also high, in the 20 plus metric ton range. But the US is
right up there at over 20 metric tons per person. Canada is pretty
high too, at about 19. Most of the European countries are in the 6 to
15 metric ton range. Mexico averages 4 tons per person which is the
world average. Naturally the undeveloped countries range down to 0.
“Since the Industrial Revolution CO2 has increased over 30%. It is not only the major man-made greenhouse gas, it is the longest lasting. While methane in the atmosphere lasts 10 to 12 years, carbon dioxide can last hundreds of years in the atmosphere, and the amount we have already put into the sky may take tens of thousands of years to dissipate, assuming we stopped our CO2 pollution now.”
—“How
can we get rid of it? I’ve heard so much about half-life estimates.
I’ve seen estimates for the half life of carbon dioxide of from a
couple of years to a hundred years. And it seems that 38 years is the
most common number given.”
—“You’re
right. But it depends on such things as the number of trees and other
plants in the world and how much more CO2
the ocean can absorb. It has been absorbing about half of the human
produced CO2
up to now. But as the ocean warms the CO2
is held closer to the surface and the amount of gas that can be
absorbed by the whole ocean is reduced.
“Then there is the fact that when the climate warms, the plants don’t absorb as much carbon dioxide, probably because they reduce their growing rate so that they can conserve water. So CO2 emissions are not being handled as well as they were a hundred years ago. But there’s more to the mix. As the world warms there is some evidence that the tree line is rising in the northern latitudes and in the higher altitudes. But then there are some other negatives like tree damaging insects that increase as the climate warms. The average temperature is expected to increase by almost one and a half degrees Celsius by 2050. It may not sound like much but on a global scale it is immense. If we do nothing, the Earth’s temperature will probably rise 4 degrees Celsius this century.”
—“How
are all these predictions made?”
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